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Predictions for 7/27

Okay, I took several days to figure out my positions.  It was a rough week for my options, I thought that by buying into positions early I could maximize profits, but  CTXS and LOGM have tormented me for a week.   I have sold LOGM and somehow I am holding CTXS.  This is definitely not the way to go.  The most important aspect of this post is what I have learned, not the predictions.

I know the next lesson I will need to learn the hard way is when to cut my loses, stocks like LOGM will not always turn around

Earnings reports

7/28 MMI, SI, ACOM
8/10 CSCO

-This stock has put me through hell for the last week, I sold to break even.
– I still expect a rally and reversal of bearish trend after earnings tomorrow, but with 10% invested it was time to take losses and admit I made a mistake
– Plan short calls after watching for reaction to earnings 

– I bought way too early, but still hoping on a positive earning

– Their earnings report is 7/27

– I Bought calls for Aug strike 75 and have been sitting on for way to long, my goal is to get out and maybe back in after earnings.

– Great earnings, if lucky can get a few calls in am
– Short term positions, I would bet at least 3 ATRs for goal of 230
– Either Weekly @ 230($0.85 for 12:1) or 245, Or September strike 255(1.49 for 5:1) or 260 (1.06 for 5:1)

– Profits well short of predictions
– Sell shorts in am
– Hard to say where support is, after hours at >3 ATRs and at 52 week low
– My guess is between 24-26, so 26 for predictions
August Strike 28 for 0.55 is a 14:1, September are similar

– Linked at hip to JNPR
– Good chance of CSCO earnings being short of predicted.

– Predictions went well, did not place any options in time to profit
– Interesting did stock made up 1/2 the initial loses
– The big question is what is the new support, I predict will be either 270 or 275
– Follow

– As predicted seems to be trending up, expect slight continued uptrend until earnings 

– This stock Looks ready to explode, but much like all the others it is waiting on earnings
– Look for short term options based on calls 

– Look for short term options based on calls

– Look at surge in price from April earnings
– Worth seeing what market does

– On a bullish trend, worth watching

– Bullish trend, fast growth
– Rapidly expanding market
– Cons – poor volume, no dividends
– Will think about buying shares
– right now very tech heavy trading, oil is probably a field to diversify into

Hit list: AMZN, JNPR
Research list: MMI, AMRN
Watch list: GOOG, Ebay, VMW, IBM, VZ, T, AAPL

Lessons learned in last week
– Risk reward is everything.
– Expecting good things is meaning less unless you can quantify it
– Movement can be measured in ATRs, for conservative bets use 2 ATRs
– Compare this with established trends/flags
– Ideally want > 3:1- Never bet against a trend before earnings,
– In-other-words, do not expect a rally day of even if indicators are good
– Volatility down after earnings, highest before
– Real time is important, you cannot rely on a middleman trader for accurate quotes
– Subscriptions to real-time info is cheap
– Commission can kill small trades
– Trades that have down poorly have PE/E ratios >40
– Dow not trade options on stocks that do not move, Vol / Avg > 500,000